Global trade activity recorded a surprise rebound in the first quarter of 2025 as businesses rushed to move goods ahead of anticipated tariff hikes, but the World Trade Organisation has warned that the momentum may not hold.
According to the WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer, merchandise trade climbed above trend, rising to 103.5 from 102.8 in March.
The agency said the surge was largely driven by importers frontloading shipments in response to growing concerns over new protectionist measures.
However, the WTO cautioned that the spike may be short-lived. Its index for new export orders, considered the most forward-looking indicator, dropped to 97.9, below the baseline of 100, suggesting a slowdown in global demand.